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中国人口严重萎缩,2100年要跌到6亿?
发表于:2016/7/8 14:29:17 浏览人数:16922
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        该评选旨在建立国内私募基金行业的客观、全面和科学评价体系,传播优秀私募管理公司独到的投资理念,探索私募管理公司新商业模式,扩大私募基金行业的社会影响力和认知度。
       

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  高盛在6月份时꼾೫调耀ųPDATE [tianv_news] SET [languageId]=@tianv_news_languageId, [topicid]=@tianv_news_topicid, [typeid]=@tianv_news_typeid, [typeid2]=@tianv_news_typeid2, [userid]=@tianv_news_userid, [companyid]=@tianv_news_companyid, [attributeid]=@tianv_news_attributeid, [title]=@tianv_news_title, [titlecolor]=@tianv_news_titlecolor, [keyword]=@tianv_news_keyword, [description]=@tianv_news_description, [subtitle]=@tianv_news_subtitle, [picture]=@tianv_news_picture, [author]=@tianv_news_author, [comefrom]=@tianv_news_comefrom, [synopsis]=@tianv_news_synopsis, [content]=@tianv_news_content, [ac1]=@tianv_news_ac1, [ac2]=@tianv_news_ac2, [ac3]=@tianv_news_ac3, [ac4]=@tianv_news_ac4, [ac5]=@tianv_news_ac5, [ac6]=@tianv_news_ac6, [ac7]=@tianv_news_ac7, [aic1]=@tianv_news_aic1, [aic2]=@tianv_news_aic2, [aic3]=@tianv_news_aic3, [aic4]=@tianv_news_aic4, [aic5]=@tianv_news_aic5, [aic6]=@tianv_news_aic6, [aic7]=@tianv_news_aic7, [abc1]=@tianv_news_abc1, [abc2]=@tianv_news_abc2, [abc3]=@tianv_news_abc3, [abc4]=@tianv_news_abc4, [abc5]=@tianv_news_abc5, [other]=@tianv_news_other, [diy]=@tianv_news_diy, [iOrder]=@tianv_news_iOrder, [iClick]=@tianv_news_iClick, [iDiscuz]=@tianv_news_iDiscuz, [tCreate]=@tianv_news_tCreate, [tUpdate]=@tianv_news_tUpdate, [bVerify]=@tianv_news_bVerify, [bDarft]=@tianv_news_bDarft, [bDeleted]=@tianv_news_bDeleted, [bPub]=@tianv_news_bPub, [bHome]=@tianv_news_bHome, [bTopic]=@tianv_news_bTopic WHERE [id] = @tianv_news_idŦ꺍೫뀀UPDATE [tianv_news] SET [languageId]=@tianv_news_languageId, [topicid]=@tianv_news_topicid, [typeid]=@tianv_news_typeid, [typeid2]=@tianv_news_typeid2, [userid]=@tianv_news_userid, [companyid]=@tianv_news_companyid, [attributeid]=@tianv_news_attributeid, [title]=@tianv_news_title, [titlecolor]=@tianv_news_titlecolor, [keyword]=@tianv_news_keyword, [description]=@tianv_news_description, [subtitle]=@tianv_news_subtitle, [picture]=@tianv_news_picture, [author]=@tianv_news_author, [comefrom]=@tianv_news_comefrom, [synopsis]=@tianv_news_synopsis, [content]=@tianv_news_content, [ac1]=@tianv_news_ac1, [ac2]=@tianv_news_ac2, [ac3]=@tianv_news_ac3, [ac4]=@tianv_news_ac4, [ac5]=@tianv_news_ac5, [ac6]=@tianv_news_ac6, [ac7]=@tianv_news_ac7, [aic1]=@tianv_news_aic1, [aic2]=@tianv_news_aic2, [aic3]=@tianv_news_aic3, [aic4]=@tianv_news_aic4, [aic5]=@tianv_news_aic5, [aic6]=@tianv_news_aic6, [aic7]=@tianv_news_aic7, [abc1]=@tianv_news_abc1, [abc2]=@tianv_news_abc2, [abc3]=@tianv_news_abc3, [abc4]=@tianv_news_abc4, [abc5]=@tianv_news_abc5, [other]=@tianv_news_other, [diy]=@tianv_news_diy, [iOrder]=@tianv_news_iOrder, [iClick]=@tianv_news_iClick, [iDiscuz]=@tianv_news_iDiscuz, [tCreate]=@tianv_news_tCreate, [tUpdate]=@tianv_news_tUpdate, [bVerify]=@tianv_news_bVerify, [bDarft]=@tianv_news_bDarft, [bDeleted]=@tianv_news_bDeleted, [bPub]=@tianv_news_bPub, [bHome]=@tianv_news_bHome, [bTopic]=@tianv_news_bTopic WHERE [id] = @tianv_news_idg: gzip, deflate Ac퀜೫p뀀UPDATE [tianv_news] SET [languageId]=@tianv_news_languageId, [topicid]=@tianv_news_topicid, [typeid]=@tianv_news_typeid, [typeid2]=@tianv_news_typeid2, [userid]=@tianv_news_userid, [companyid]=@tianv_news_companyid, [attributeid]=@tianv_news_attributeid, [title]=@tianv_news_title, [titlecolor]=@tianv_news_titlecolor, [keyword]=@tianv_news_keyword, [description]=@tianv_news_description, [subtitle]=@tianv_news_subtitle, [picture]=@tianv_news_picture, [author]=@tianv_news_author, [comefrom]=@tianv_news_comefrom, [synopsis]=@tianv_news_synopsis, [content]=@tianv_news_content, [ac1]=@tianv_news_ac1, [ac2]=@tianv_news_ac2, [ac3]=@tianv_news_ac3, [ac4]=@tianv_news_ac4, [ac5]=@tianv_news_ac5, [ac6]=@tianv_news_ac6, [ac7]=@tianv_news_ac7, [aic1]=@tianv_news_aic1, [aic2]=@tianv_news_aic2, [aic3]=@tianv_news_aic3, [aic4]=@tianv_news_aic4, [aic5]=@tianv_news_aic5, [aic6]=@tianv_news_aic6, [aic7]=@tianv_news_aic7, [abc1]=@tianv_news_abc1, [abc2]=@tianv_news_abc2, [abc3]=@tianv_news_abc3, [abc4]=@tianv_news_abc4, 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  市场没有常胜将军,投资人最该学会的一课是敬畏。历史上数次股灾导致大量财富灰飞烟灭,经历过股市大起大落的投资人总能给我们带来诸多借鉴和经验。

 

  1、格雷厄姆1929年股市泡沫破灭后在1931年抄底,结果破产。

  失败原因:抄底

 

  2、美国着名经济学家费雪已经预见1929年股市泡沫破灭,但是还是买入自认为是便宜的股票,结果几天之中损失了几百万美元,一贫如洗。

  失败原因:认为优秀企业可以穿越周期不计价格买入

 

  3、索罗斯1987年前认为日本股市泡沫巨大,放空日本股票,结果惨败,日本股市牛到了1989年。索罗斯在华尔街评论上鼓吹美国股市会坚挺,日本股市将会崩盘,而结果正好相反:美国股市崩盘了,日本股市却坚挺。

  索罗斯旗下的量子基金当年损失了32%,与他唱反调的孔逸夫却让科尔基金赢利了70%,这是一个令人惊奇的数字,因为当年几乎所有的对冲基金都亏损了。1999年曾不看好科技股,但2000年后却用量子基金高位买入科技股,最后大亏。

  失败原因:投机,对赌

 

  4、上海一基金管理公司总经理当初是从中国台湾地区股市1000多点开始进入的,一直做到10000点,入市50万的资金滚到了8000万,其实她在10000点的时候,就把股票全部抛了,手上握有的全是现金。

  因为担心股市过于疯狂,所以她还是相对比较理智的,最后台湾股市上冲到12000点之上,三年多时间增值了160倍,但是最后的结局还是很惨,在台湾股市由12000点跌到7000点时,已经跌去5000多点了,按道理该反弹了吧,她又进去了,股指又跌掉了5000点,她不得不全部认赔清仓,三年的财富又都化为灰烬。

  失败原因:博反弹,做波段

 

  归其原因,我们客观地说,她还是非常聪明的,但是为什么后来又进场了,她当时自己就以为自己是股神了,可以掌控股市,股市不过是她的超级提款机而已。在此,我劝告大家,现在股市好,可能未来股市更好,但是如何清醒的看待股市,如何看待自己是一个永恒的话题。

  失败原因:高估自己

 

  5、香港有个知名股评曹仁超,1972年香港股灾前1200点看空,结果差点被公司解雇。1973年港股达到1773点后大幅下跌。到1974年跌至 400点,老曹躲过大熊,信心百倍。1974年7月港股跌至290点后认为可以捞底,拿全部积蓄50万港币抄底和记洋行,该蓝筹股从1973年股市泡沫的 43块一直跌到5.8。老曹全仓买入。结果后来5个月,港股再度跌至150点。和记洋行跌至1.1元。老曹最后斩仓,亏损80%以上。

  失败原因:全仓买卖

 

  6、徐兴博年近半百,是南京市一家药材公司的普通职工。1992年,我国证券交易市场还刚刚起步,许多单位和个人在这片领域里淘一桶金。徐兴博的确在这里面淘得了第一桶金,凭着丰富的投资经验,不管股市如何涨跌,他总是能及时嗅出大盘行情,事先作出调整,让自己的投资稳定增长。

  2001年10月,形势急转,而他仍认为能象以前那样安然度过低谷,接受委托资金超过100万元。2005年6月,沪指跌破1000点大关,一夜间回到了13年前,徐兴博和朋友委托给他炒股的财产,在这次大跌中损失殆尽。

  失败原因:加杠杆,借钱投资

 

  来源:雪球

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